Gang violence continues to be responsible for hundreds of deaths and injuries in Haiti, where attacks by criminal groups have slowed in recent months in the capital but have intensified against farming communities and other rural areas outside of Port-au-Prince.
For the past four years, since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, Haiti has been slipping ever deeper into chaos and anarchy. In January 2023, the terms of the country’s last ten sitting senators expired, leaving it with no nationally elected officials. In theory, Haiti is now run by a Transitional Presidential Council (tpc), an unelected body of politicians appointed by consensus in a process overseen by the Caribbean Community, an intergovernmental organisation.
The presented article analyzes the evolution of Haiti’s criminal governance and outlines three forecast scenarios for the period 2025-2030: stabilization, stagnation, and further state collapse. The final reflection underlines the geopolitical implications for the Caribbean and the US, highlighting how Haiti’s future represents a crucial challenge for regional security and for the international community’s ability to address criminal governance phenomenon in contexts of state fragility.
Haïti est aujourd’hui le troisième pays le plus vulnérable au monde face au changement climatique, et subit une accumulation de chocs : ouragans, inondations, glissements de terrain, sécheresses. Des catastrophes amplifiées par une fragilité structurelle : institutions faibles, pauvreté, infrastructures délabrées.
Manque d’électricité, absence de cantine, classes surchargées : les écoles haïtiennes souffrent de nombreuses faiblesses structurelles, exacerbées par la prolifération de bandes criminelles qui ont contraint plus de 1 600 établissements à fermer à travers le pays et paupérisé les familles.